Just up from Politico, following the scheduled Friday morning meeting of the House Republican Caucus, GOP leadership is “cautiously confident” they will be able to floor a bill next week. During the meeting the wave of conservative outrage expected was considerably muted. The plan is scaled back somewhat from my posts here and here. The money is cut to a flat $1bln, and a proposal to have DHS develop a plan to gain “operational control” of the border has been dropped. Remaining in the bill are the language changes to the 2008 law, permission for the border patrol to enter federal lands, deployment of the Guard to the border, boosting the number of immigration judges and working with the originating countries to resettle the children in their homelands.
There is some question Republicans can get 218 votes. Democrats are expected to vote en bloc against any bill making changes to the 2008 law; without which changes, self evidently, there will be no funding at all. Nancy Pelosi was in full bark-at-the-moon mode, either believing or pretending to believe it is somehow possible she can leverage the border crisis into approval of Senate’s pork-and-stupdity bill masquerading as Comprehensive Immigration Reform, a thing substantially less likely than your humble correspondent being bodily assumed into Heaven. Today.
Approval of a bill– any bill at all, but especially one including changes to the 2008 law– will put huge pressure on the Senate because– as I observed in a nearby companion piece— Dirty Harry probably can’t put a bill over in the face of a Republican filibuster without making changes to the 2008 law.
Essentially, we’re still in Downtown Gridlock City. I am far from certain Republicans can get a bill in the House. I am reasonably certain the Senate can not get a bill unless they’re willing to countenance changes the Democrat caucus seems to be nearly uniformly against. If both chambers get a bill, they will not find it easy to conference them. And if they manage a conference report, it won’t go through the House unless it starts deporting people in a big hurry.